Five must-read fantasy football stats for Week 12

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Five must-read fantasy football stats for Week 12 Published: Nov 25, 2016 at 11:07 AM NFL Network Analytics Expert 1) Projections Happy Week 12! I hope you had an awesome and thank you again for sharing your football season with me and my coworkers. I am still eating leftovers -- because they are awesome -- and still thinking about yesterday's games. I am curious if it would be interesting to you guys if we talked about the stats that don't appear in the box score more. Yes, I am inspired by Dez v. Norman with this question, but would it be interesting to talk about some of the tracking stats I use? Let me know. Note: These projections are based on my stat-line projection for each player translated into standard fantasy scoring. These are the median values. Tip: Use the order and points as a way to compare ... e.g. if a running back is projected to earn 1.5 points more than the guy behind him, but only 0.15 points le s than the guy in front of him, take the magnitude into consideration. Also, asterisks (*) mean watch out for injury report changes, but always do that anyway, even if there doesn't happen to be an asterisk. Quarterbacks: , (19.6) , (18.9) , (18.9) , (18.2) , (17.9) , (18.3) , (16.8) Running Backs: , (18.6) , (17.0) , (15.5) , (15.2) , (13.3) , (13.2) , (12.0) Wide Receivers: Jr., (13.5) , (12.2) , (12.1) , ( Martin Havlat Jersey 11.4) , (11.0) , (10.8) , (10.6) Tight Ends: , (11.0)* , PAtriots (10.4) , (8.4) , (7.5) , (7.0) , (6.6) , (5.7) Kickers , (8.8) , (8.6) , (8.5) , (8.2)Stephen Hauschka, (7.8) , (7.64) , (7.52) D/STs (9.61) (9.19) (8.99) (8.92) (8.73) (8.61) (8.41) 2) is averaging 270.8 pa sing yards per game (13th) this season. In seven wins, he averages 271 pa sing yards per game, but only two of those wins were by more than five points (LA and CHI) and in those wins he only averaged 211.5 YPG. The margin of victory for seven wins is a total of 27 points, the lowest margin of victory over a team's first seven wins in history. Close games typically inflate stats and thus fantasy points. When I modeled this week's game, my simulated final score gives the ' an eight-point edge, with the away team winning 27-19. Cleveland's defense has allowed 100 or more rushing yards in nine of their 10 games so far, and the most offensive touchdowns this season (38). Overall, this defense is ranked 31st in points per game, total yards per game and rushing yards per game. is my QB11 with a median projection of 265 yards and two touchdowns. His floor is high but his ceiling is limited based on my projections that he'll be playing with the lead in the second half. is my RB9 for the week CM Punk Jersey with 60 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards off of three catches. He also has a better than 50 percent chance of seeing the end zone. 3) has accounted for 50.3 percent of his team's offensive touches this season (first in NFL) Gordon has 217 attempts (second-most), 838 rushing yards (fourth-most), nine rushing touchdowns (tied for third-most) and 1,184 scrimmage yards (fourth-most) and is the only player in the NFL to account for more than 50 percent of his team's offensive touches. Houston's defense held Oakland's offense to only 30 rushing yards total last week in Mexico City and overall is the No. 5 defense in terms of total yards allowed with 318.2 per game. I know you see Gordon in the listings above, and I know I usually don't talk about the listed players (on purpose), but I wanted to make sure to alert you to something my numbers reveal that might be a little different from expectations. My model output has the edging out the in Houston by two points with a final score of 24-22. I get a lot of questions about home field advantage every week, and my answer is that some stadiums or teams show trends and some do not. My model tracks factors that relate to this, for example: location, results at location, what was supposed to happen with the final score compared to what actually happened, day the away team traveled, time between games, etc. So in other words, I am very mindful of the real home versus away information. Some more projections: is my QB22, WR35, TE12, RB16 and WR19. 4) Two snacks: wide receivers and Jordan Matthews is not playing when his team travels to play the this week. Thomas has averaged 3.3 catches on 5.8 targets and 31.2 yards in nine games so far this season, with four touchdowns. It's reasonable to a sume the Jags will be playing from behind at the end of this game and both and Marquise Lee have increased potential volume in Thomas' absence. Lee has four receptions and 50 or more yards in the past three games and could be a good sleeper candidate. averages 5.3 receptions on 8.6 targets and 63.9 yards per game this year with just three receiving touchdowns. This week against the his upside is right up there with the elite wideouts. Why? is averaging 276.1 pa sing yards per game (ninth) for the season, but 316.3 pa sing yards per game in the past four (third over this time). This game script could play out where lots of points are scored. If you are looking for upside (and a pretty safe floor) Matthews should be on your list. 5) Three If/Thens: Injuries ' defensemen and are set to return to the field this week. If you have or any of the pa s catchers that aren't named in Kansas City, then you should consider starting someone else -- strongly. And yes, there is the sleeper argument with sitting, but I would stay away from this situation. defensive end and have already been ruled out for Sunday. is also questionable, so factor this into your Bucs Anton Forsberg Jersey projections. Ahem is already listed above, but you can give a bump to , too. If the ' rookie guard/tackle, (questionable) joins center (OUT) and tackle (doubtful) on the final injury report, then downgrade the Miami offense. I know they are playing the , whose defense has been really generous to opposing offenses, but the difference in their ability to score with an injury-decimated o-line is significant. This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.
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